Analisis Forex & Kajian: 26.02.2025 - Oil market on verge of...

26.02.2025 01:49 PM

Oil market on verge of collapse. Can Brent hold above $70?

The oil and gas market is expected to trade with high volatility in the near future. Oil remains under pressure, and its ability to stay above $70 will depend on further geopolitical developments and macroeconomic data.

Market snapshot

Brent crude oil futures have lost all their early-year momentum and are once again stuck in the consolidation range of $70 to $75, which has persisted since last fall.

As of the time of this report, the nearest futures contract was trading at $73.3 per barrel and is set to expire on Friday. The next futures contract is priced slightly lower at $72.7.

From a technical standpoint, the 4-hour chart shows oversold conditions, which could signal a potential short-term rebound. However, in the long term, oil remains weak, hovering near last year's lows.

Key bearish factors for oil market

The main driver behind oil's decline remains the anticipated supply surplus. Sanctions imposed against Russia appear unlikely to reduce global supply.

Additionally, speculation about a possible resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict has raised concerns over unrestricted Russian oil exports to global markets.

Further negative pressure comes from the US-China trade war, initiated by the Trump administration. The tariff restrictions have already begun to impact the economy by eroding consumer confidence and fueling inflation expectations. This, in turn, poses a risk of declining energy demand.

Why the market didn't respond to new sanctions on Iran

New restrictions on Iranian oil exports, which should have supported Brent prices, have had little notable impact on the market.

This could be due to past experiences—previous sanctions merely altered supply logistics rather than creating an actual shortage. However, the extent and severity of these new sanctions will ultimately determine their impact.

Some temporary support for oil prices came from the latest American Petroleum Institute (API) data, showing a decline in US crude oil inventories. This was the first drop in weeks, providing a brief relief from selling pressure.

Natural gas: a local upside

Natural gas futures have bounced off a short-term trendline, signaling a positive shift. However, on the 1-hour chart, the RSI indicator is showing overbought conditions, which could lead to a minor pullback before a potential new rally.

Key levels to watch

Resistance: $4.16, followed by $4.255.

Support: $3.958.

Anda telah pun menyukai siaran hari ini

* Analisis pasaran yang disiarkan di sini adalah bertujuan untuk meningkatkan kesedaran anda, tetapi tidak untuk memberi arahan untuk membuat perdagangan.

Jika anda mempunyai sebarang soalan berkaitan kandungan, sila hubungi editorial-board@instaforex.com

Fundamental analysis

Lebih banyak artikel daripada pengarang ini

Langganan E-mel

EURUSD

Euro vs US Dollar

Pilih carta masa

min

jam

hari

minggu

Mulakan dagangan

Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.

Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.

Artikel yang dicadangkan

BCE Mungkin Memotong Kadar Faedah Dua Kali

AUD/USD. Analisis dan Ramalan

Pasaran Menghadapi Tempoh Ketidakstabilan yang Berpanjangan (USD/JPY dan USD/CHF Dijangka Terus Menurun)

Apa yang Perlu Diberi Perhatian pada 11 April? Ulasan Fundamental dan Peristiwa Penting untuk Pedagang Baharu

Gambaran Keseluruhan GBP/USD. 11 April: Pasaran Tidak Percaya kepada Trump

Gambaran Keseluruhan EUR/USD. 11 April: Komedi Amerika Berterusan

Cadangan dan Analisis Dagangan untuk GBP/USD pada 11 April: Dolar Mengalami Dua Tamparan

EUR/USD. Isyarat Dari Masa Lalu: Laporan CPI A.S. Gagal Menyokong Dolar

Euro Melangkah Maju. Lawan berundur

XAU/USD. Analisis dan Ramalan

Analisis terbaik