Analisis Forex & Kajian: 23.01.2025 - S&P 500 at peak, with...

23.01.2025 11:29 AM

S&P 500 at peak, with bear market signals emerging

Futures on US equities remained almost unchanged on Thursday following a strong rally in the previous session that saw the S&P 500 index hit a new all-time high. However, this comes as no surprise to market participants. Such a strong rally can be attributed to a robust earnings season as well as optimism surrounding deregulation and tax cuts under the Trump administration. These factors continue to support bullish sentiment.

Fundamental background

Netflix soared nearly 10% after reporting record subscriber growth, confirming strong demand for digital content and the ongoing trend toward digital consumption.

Procter & Gamble gained 1.9% after the company posted strong quarterly results, indicating sustained demand for consumer goods, even amidst rising competition.

Oracle surged by 6.8% after announcing a $500 billion AI joint venture with SoftBank and OpenAI, boosting market confidence in the long-term potential of AI.

Macroeconomic expectations

Investors remain optimistic about further tax cuts and deregulation, expecting additional economic acceleration.

Labor market data, particularly initial jobless claims, continues to be closely watched as it provides insight into employment conditions and indirectly affects consumer spending.

Technical analysis

The S&P 500 recently broke through the resistance levels of 6,000 and 6,060, accelerating the ongoing intermediate upside momentum that began in early January.

Given the sustained bullish trend and overall positive market sentiment, the next target appears to be around 6,110, where a short-term pullback is possible.

If buying momentum remains strong, the next areas of interest will be 6,200 and then 6,400–6,500. However, according to wave structure analysis, the range of 6,400–6,500 could mark the start of a more significant correction or even a shift into a long-term bearish phase.

The Nasdaq Composite closed at 21,820 on Wednesday, adding 286 points, or 1.33%.

Over the past four weeks, the Nasdaq has seen a modest rise (+0.10%), which could signal some consolidation after previous gains.

The annual growth of 24% reflects a strong trend over the past 12 months. However, forecasts for the end of the quarter (20,615) and the end of next year (19,355) suggest the possibility of a correction phase.

From a wave theory perspective, the market may be nearing the final stage of a major upward wave, making it crucial for investors to monitor the index's reaction as it approaches key psychological levels.

Conclusion for traders and investors

Short-term outlook:The S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain in a bullish trend, supported by positive earnings reports and expectations of stimulus measures. Traders could consider buying on corrections to support levels if their strategy involves short-term trend trading.

Medium-term and long-term outlook:If the S&P 500 reaches the key resistance levels of 6,200–6,500, and the Nasdaq potentially falls to 20,600–19,350, it may be time to reassess portfolios. Adding to short positions or locking in profits could be a sensible strategy if a downward correction begins.

Risks

Potential overvaluation of high-tech companies (growth in market capitalization not always supported by fundamental metrics).
Uncertainty surrounding the implementation of political promises regarding deregulation and tax incentives.
Potential geopolitical factors that could trigger increased volatility in the short term.

For investors focused on longer time horizons, it is essential to stay attuned to key macro and microeconomic indicators, as strong resistance levels and overheating in certain market sectors could trigger significant corrections.

For day traders and those focused on shorter timeframes, it may make sense to continue trading with the trend, but as soon as there are signs of weakening momentum, it is crucial to shift to more conservative positions or use stop-loss orders.

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