empty
19.03.2025 10:51 AM
Stock market pays dear cost for Washington's rhetoric

The boomerang effect: what goes around, comes around

The US is retreating from globalization, and it is only a matter of time before it faces the consequences. According to a Bank of America survey, 69% of investors believe that American superiority is a thing of the past, leading to capital outflows and an 8.6% drop in the S&P 500 from its February highs. Since then, the stock market has lost around $5 trillion in market capitalization.

Don't set a trap for someone else—you might stumble into it yourself.

Ironically, the biggest problems for the US are coming from those who suffered the most at its hands. Trump's return to the White House led to a 20% tariff hike on China, but China struck back twice—first with DeepSeek's AI breakthrough, and then with BYD's game-changing electric vehicles.

BYD unveiled a new EV lineup capable of charging as fast as gasoline-powered cars, a blow that Tesla couldn't withstand. The stock plunged, triggering a broader selloff in the S&P 500.

The decline of US exceptionalism isn't the only reason why capital is fleeing America. Tariffs and trade wars are fueling a stagflationary scenario for the US economy. Fitch Ratings cut the 2025 US GDP growth forecast from 2.1% to 1.7%. At the same time, it raised inflation projections by 1 percentage point.

As a result, investors are dumping the "Magnificent Seven" stocks and shifting focus to companies that benefit from stagflation. Goldman Sachs' Stagflation Index has surged 14% over the past month, while the S&P 500 has lost 8.6% in the same period.

This image is no longer relevant

According to Bank of America, fund managers overseeing $426 billion in assets have slashed their US equity exposure by 40 percentage points—the fastest reduction on record.

The underweight position now stands at 23%, the highest since June 2023.

Meanwhile, European equities have reached their largest portfolio share since 2021. The direction is clear—money is flowing out of North America and into Europe.

A silver lining for the S&P 500?

However, there is one bright spot for the S&P 500. Corporate insiders are using the market correction to buy stocks. The bull-to-bear ratio has climbed to its highest level since June, returning to its historical average.

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Fed's verdict will be crucial

The market is awaiting the Federal Reserve's policy decision. If the Fed follows the OECD and Fitch Ratings' advice to hold off on rate cuts in 2025, and the updated forecasts show only one or no rate cuts instead of two in December, the S&P 500 selloff could intensify.

Technical outlook: the S&P 500 fits into the bearish strategy

On the daily chart, the S&P 500 remains in a sell-off mode, following a shorting strategy at resistance near 5,670. As long as prices stay below the local high of 5,700, holding and adding to short positions makes sense. Target levels: 5,455 and 5,330.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

The Dollar Shot Itself in the Foot

Don't create a problem for someone else; you might get caught in it yourself. Donald Trump sought to leverage the United States' leading position in the global economy by announcing

Marek Petkovich 00:50 2025-04-04 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Nonfarm Payrolls and the Greenback

Can strong Nonfarm Payrolls help the dollar? This question is complicated, as the market is currently too shaken by Donald Trump's new tariffs. Traditional fundamental factors have been pushed into

Irina Manzenko 00:46 2025-04-04 UTC+2

USD/JPY – Analysis and Forecast

The Japanese yen is showing strong gains amid broad-based selling of the U.S. dollar, keeping the USD/JPY pair below the key psychological level of 147.00. Investor concerns over the potential

Irina Yanina 18:22 2025-04-03 UTC+2

Markets enter warpath

Donald Trump confidently speaks about America's return to its Golden Age. From his viewpoint, it's time for America to prosper, rather than other countries. However, why does the US president

Marek Petkovich 10:49 2025-04-03 UTC+2

Why Is the Dollar Falling If Tariff Issues Affect Everyone? (Correction Likely for GBP/USD and EUR/USD After Sharp Rally)

The U.S. dollar had recently managed to stay above the key 104.00 mark on the ICE index, giving hope that a further decline might be avoided

Pati Gani 09:12 2025-04-03 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 3? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

On Thursday, several macroeconomic events are scheduled, with the U.S. ISM Services PMI being the most significant. At this moment, we believe there is little value in analyzing the macroeconomic

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-04-03 UTC+2

GBP/USD Pair Overview – April 3. The Market is Tired of Trump's Tariffs

The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade in a total flat on April 2. What caused the dollar to stop falling? After all, Trump announces new tariffs or teases upcoming

Paolo Greco 06:10 2025-04-03 UTC+2

EUR/USD Pair Overview – April 3. Trump's Tariffs: Not As Simple As It Seems

The EUR/USD currency pair once again spent most of Wednesday virtually motionless. Even in the chart below, it's clear that recent volatility is low and decreasing. Strangely enough, this

Paolo Greco 06:10 2025-04-03 UTC+2

GBP/USD: Optimism from the British Minister and the Risk of Long Positions

The GBP/USD pair is holding firm ahead of Trump's expected tariff announcement. On Tuesday, the pound reached a weekly low of 1.2878, only to sharply reverse and return to 1.29

Irina Manzenko 01:06 2025-04-03 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.